According to data from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the scale of my country’s Internet of Things industry is planned to reach 1.5 trillion yuan in 2020, and the value of related chips, modules, and terminals will account for 30%, corresponding to 450 billion yuan; of which communication chips and modules are estimated to contribute 8% – 10%, the space is expected to be about 36 billion yuan to 45 billion yuan in 2020.
According to different network types, it is predicted that the number of IoT connections in my country by 2022 will be: 290 million cellular IoT units (accounting for 6.6%), 1.13 billion LPWAN units (accounting for 25.2%), and 3.05 billion local IoT units (accounting for 25.2%). than 68.1%). The average market value of modules is: Cellular Internet of Things 23.18 billion yuan (accounting for 49.8%), LPWANI 5.79 billion yuan (accounting for 36.2%). Local WiFi Internet of Things 7.58 billion yuan (accounting for 16.3%). In summary, it is estimated that by 2022, my country’s wireless module market will total 46.55 billion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 30% from 2017 to 2022.
Cellular module
Analyzing the related number of connections, we can find the trend of “2G slowdown, 3G stability, and 4G surge”. Starting from 2015, the 2G network has assumed most of the M2M connections, but in actual use, problems such as limited number of concurrent connections and excessive terminal power consumption have occurred; NB-IoT network has a negative impact on the 2G network in low-power scenarios. There are obvious substitution advantages. As the three major basic operators accelerate the opening of NB-IoT networks in In 2018, it is expected that the growth in the number of 2G network connections will gradually slow down from 2019.
In IoT scenarios with medium to high speed or frequent interactions, the number of 4G connections is expected to grow rapidly, especially in automotive and industrial applications. In addition, in the long term, 2G network withdrawal will become a mainstream global trend, and 4G will gradually replace 2G modules in scenarios with high replacement costs and new deployment connections.
Based on this, it is estimated that by 2022, the number of 2G, 3G, and 4G network connections will be 194 million, 50 million, and 197 million respectively, accounting for 44%, 11.3%, and 44.7% of the cellular Internet of Things respectively. , 4G modules are gradually becoming mainstream. Comprehensive calculation: my country’s cellular module market space will grow from 6.95 billion yuan in 2017 to 23.18 billion yuan in 2022, with an average annual compound growth rate of 27.2%.
LPWAN module
Analyze the number of relevant connections: LPW AN mainly includes three standards: NB-IoT, eMTC, and LoRa (Long Range, ultra-long-distance low-power data transmission). my country’s low-power IoT connections are mainly NB-IoT , and eMTC There is a rigid demand in the voice scene, and LoRa serves as a complement to the two and is expected to be partially promoted in the regional market.
WiFi local area module
The WiFi module industry has now entered a mature stage. The combination of manufacturing costs and reasonable gross profit margin determines its sales unit price. The market space increases in proportion as the number of connections increases.
Comprehensive calculation: my country’s LAN module market space will grow from 4.2 billion yuan in 2017 to 7.58 billion yuan in 2022, with an average annual compound growth rate of 12.5%.
Keywords: wireless communication module